Christian Share of Global Population Declines Despite Remaining the Largest Group
A recent study from a respected research center shows that, while Christianity continues to be the world’s largest religious tradition, its proportion of the global population has diminished over the past decade. This trend is largely attributed to an increasing number of people leaving the faith.
The extensive analysis, which reviewed thousands of censuses and surveys, revealed that the number of Christians grew by approximately 121.6 million between 2010 and 2020, reaching nearly 2.3 billion individuals. However, when considering the estimated global population of 7.8 billion during that period, the Christian share dropped by 1.8 percentage points to 28.8%.
Muslims: The Fastest-Growing Religious Group
In contrast, the global Muslim population increased by 347 million, reaching around 2 billion people. This growth raised their proportion of the world’s total population by 1.8 percentage points, landing at 25.6%. The study highlights that, among all religious groups, Muslims are expanding at the fastest pace.
Impact of Religious Disaffiliation
The researchers identified the main factor behind the falling share of Christians as a trend of religious disaffiliation. Their findings indicate that even though more individuals originally grew up within a religious context compared to those without such a background, the number of people who were raised Christian but later chose not to identify with any religion has surpassed the number of unaffiliated individuals who have joined the faith.
According to the study, people who now identify as having “no religion”—whether as atheists, agnostics, or simply without any particular religious affiliation—experienced a significant rise. Their numbers swelled by about 270.1 million from 2010 to 2020, reaching 1.9 billion and composing roughly 24.2% of the global population.
Patterns in Religious Switching
To gain further insights, the study examined survey data from 117 countries, focusing mainly on adults aged 18 to 54, since religious switching is most common among younger individuals. The analysis revealed that for every adult who embraced a religion after growing up unaffiliated, more than three individuals left their childhood faith entirely.
In the case of Christianity, the shift was even more pronounced. For every person who joined, more than three former Christians abandoned the religion altogether. While many of those who left no longer affiliate with any particular tradition, some have chosen different faith paths.
Global Shifts in Religious Affiliation
Geographically, the shifts in religious affiliation are striking. For example, China now has the largest number of religiously unaffiliated individuals, with nearly 1.3 billion people—representing about 90% of the population—identifying as such. The United States follows, with roughly 101 million people reporting no religious affiliation, marking a substantial increase over the previous decade.
Additionally, sub-Saharan Africa has emerged as the region housing the highest number of Christians, surpassing Europe. In 2020, approximately 30.7% of Christians resided in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to 22.3% in Europe.
While around 120 countries continue to have a Christian majority, many places have experienced declines. In nations such as the United Kingdom, Australia, France, and Uruguay, Christians now represent less than half of the population, with the religiously unaffiliated making up 40% or more. In fact, in countries like the Netherlands, Uruguay, and New Zealand, non-affiliated groups now constitute majorities, joining other regions where this trend was already evident a decade ago.
Potential Future Trends in U.S. Religious Demographics
Looking ahead, projections suggest that if the current rate of disaffiliation among young adults continues, the United States could see its Christian majority status diminish by as soon as 2045. Researchers caution, however, that unexpected events such as wars, economic challenges, climate-related issues, or changes in immigration could potentially influence these trends, possibly even leading to a revival of Christianity in the country.
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